IEA warns that the outbreak will have a "significant impact" on the oil market

International Benchmark BrentcrudeThe price hit an intraday high of US $ 29.00 / barrel on Thursday, up about 1.8%, while US West Texas Intermediate Oil was US $ 25.84 / barrel, up more than 2%.

Previously, Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, described it as "black April", when the price of US crude oil futures fell to about -37 US dollars / barrel. Since then, the outlook for the energy market has improved and oil prices have rebounded from their April lows.

The International Energy Agency said: "Petroleum production is responding strongly to the market, and economic activity is beginning to recover gradually but in a fragile manner. The main uncertainties remain."

The International Energy Agency added: "The biggest question is whether the government can relax the locking measures without triggering a new outbreak of the new crown."


The organization said that another risk is whether oil producer OPEC and its non-OPEC allies will cooperate highly in its agreement to reduce production, and said: "These are big issues, and the answers we get in the coming weeks will have an impact on the oil market huge influence."

In its closely watched monthly report, the IEA ’s oil demand outlook shows that this year ’s daily oil demand fell by 8.6 million barrels to 91.2 million barrels this year. This is 700,000 barrels / day more than expected in previous reports. The decline in oil consumption is expected to be the largest in history. On the supply side, this month's "spectacular" decline is expected to be 12 million barrels / day, falling to a 9-year low of 88 million barrels / day.

Previously, non-OPEC allies agreed to cut production to a record 9.7 million barrels / day in May and June. Since then, OPEC ’s main representative, Saudi Arabia, said it plans to reduce daily output by another 1 million barrels to 7.5 million barrels in June.

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The International Energy Agency said: "In terms of supply and demand, the market has proven their power and shows that lower prices affect all producers. We have seen countries outside the IEA agreement cut production significantly and exceeded expectations . "


In countries outside the OPEC agreement, such as the United States and Canada, production cuts meant that April output was reduced by 3 million barrels from the beginning of the year. The organization said it may reduce 4 million barrels per day in June, and may cut production again.

A global public health crisis meant that countries around the world actually had to implement blockade measures, and many governments imposed strict restrictions on the daily lives of billions of people.

These restrictions have caused an unprecedented demand shock in the energy market and are expected to cause the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of 1930.

According to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, to date, 4.3 million people worldwide have been infected with coronavirus and 297,226 people have died.

Some countries have tried to ease the blockade and allow some shops and factories to reopen. The gradual relaxation of restrictions is helping the energy market demand. It is estimated that by the end of May, the number of people under living restrictions will fall from the recent 4 billion to 2.8 billion globally. However, the organization emphasized that the resurgence of new coronary pneumonia will be the "primary risk factor" for oil demand. Another outbreak will have a "significant impact" on the oil market.


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